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Discuss
how well reasoned you find this argument.
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The following appeared
in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that
manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years
ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high- quality
wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a
new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we
have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer
makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of
most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to
pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our
company profits will increase."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new
homes in Steel City.
"Over the
past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent,
and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide,
sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced
houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company
profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead
on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional
workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
------------------------------
A recent sales
study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has
increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city
restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-
income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer
home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern
about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite
popular and profitable.
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-
tech medical equipment.
"In order
to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build
a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the
locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will
be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by
workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep
production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council
has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years
ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel.
During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened
there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve
Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort
hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of
Saluda.
"For the past
five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High
School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band
competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at
Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at
Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general
music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
------------------------------
The following appeared
as part of a memo from the president of Automate, a company that
manufactures automobiles.
"It has come
to my attention that Sparks, Inc., the manufacturing company that just moved into
our state, is advertising job openings at salaries that are twice as high as those paid to our
experienced assembly-line workers. Some of our employees have already left to work for
Sparks. In order to keep our best staff, we must pay them salaries equal to those Sparks pays
its employees. Otherwise we will continue to lose employees in the future, because Sparks
must staff the additional new plants that it plans to build in the state."
------------------------------
The following is
a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school district.
"A recent
six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school for 100
schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the breakfast plan were less likely
than other children to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school
plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that children
who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in order to
reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve academic performance in all of Mylar's
elementary and secondary schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each
school day."
------------------------------
When Ida McAllister
ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30
percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to
environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake
City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville,
Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu
prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the
pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great
appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling
program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new
mayor.
------------------------------
According to information
recently reported in the Eliottown Gazette, the number of people who
travel to Eliottown has increased significantly over the past several years. So far this year over
100,000 people have arrived on flights to Eliottown's airport, compared with only 80,000 last
year and 40,000 the year before. Eliottown's train station has received more than 50,000
passengers this year, compared with less than 40,000 last year and 20,000 the year before.
Clearly tourism in Eliottown has been increasing, thanks to the new Central Park and Museum
of Modern Art that opened last year. Therefore, the funding for the park and museum should
be increased significantly.
------------------------------
The following appeared
in the editorial section of a newsmagazine.
"Some states
are creating new laws that restrict the use of of handheld cell phones by drivers of
automobiles. Such legislation, however, is sheer folly. Although some people with cell phones
undoubtedly cause problems on the road, including serious accidents, the majority do not.
Besides, problems are also caused by drivers who are distracted by any number of other
activities, from listening to the radio to disciplining children. Since there is no need to pass
legislation restricting these and other such activities, it follows that there is no need to restrict
people's freedom to use a device that they find convenient—or helpful in emergencies."
------------------------------
Until recently,
people in Hiparia did most of their shopping by driving to shopping malls. They
are beginning, however, to do more of their shopping by ordering merchandise from mail-order
catalogs and the Internet. These purchases are delivered to them by mail or by a delivery
service. For many purchases, Hiparians no longer need to drive to and from shopping malls;
there will therefore be a resulting reduction in the consumption of vehicle fuel in Hiparia.
------------------------------
The following report
appeared in an archaeology journal.
"The discovery
of distinctively shaped ceramic pots at various prehistoric sites scattered over a
wide area has led archaeologists to ask how the pots were spread. Some believe the pot
makers migrated to the various sites and carried the pots along with them; others believe the
pots were spread by trade and their makers remained in one place. Now, analysis of the bones
of prehistoric human skeletons can settle the debate: high levels of a certain metallic element
contained in various foods are strongly associated with people who migrated to a new place
after childhood. Many of the bones found near the pots at a few sites showed high levels of the
metallic element. Therefore, it must be that the pots were spread by migration, not trade."
------------------------------
Milk and dairy
products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and
maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help
prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is
linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of
people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the
years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study.
Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in
dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.
------------------------------
The following appeared
in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of
Mentia.
"Salicylates
are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat
headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades
food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This
rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the
average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently,
food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for
foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the
number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years
ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded
from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their
own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of
islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their
biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's
conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered
approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method,
my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate
understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
------------------------------
Woven baskets characterized
by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found
only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to
have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a
"Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River
is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but
there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of
people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people
disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river—the woods
around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean
baskets were not unique to Palea.
------------------------------
The following memo
appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative
treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce
absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where
fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the
treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds
are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the
daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent
colds and lower absenteeism."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year
the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni
University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from
prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction
in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In
contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of
maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget
deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree
programs like those at Omni."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"In 90 towns
where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food
products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without
pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a
growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our
market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who
visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that
to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our
markets."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with
food-storage warehouses in several cities.
"Recently
we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-
control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that
over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the
Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our
warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been
destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower,
our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control
services."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order
to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of
Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism).
This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per
capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population
of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin
to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire
the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
------------------------------
The following appeared
as part of a business plan developed by the manager of the Rialto
Theater.
"Despite its
downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades,
must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new
Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video
arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a
recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released
movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the
Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same
features as Apex."
------------------------------
The following is
a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.
"Monarch Books
should open a cafè in its store to attract more customers and better compete
with Regal Books, which recently opened a cafè. Monarch, which has been in business at the
same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer following because it is known
for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Opening the cafè would clearly attract more
customers. The cafè would require relatively little space. Space could be made for the cafè
by
discontinuing the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the
last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under
age ten."
------------------------------
The following appeared
as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer
live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice
from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough
to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice
to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately,
according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports
coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can
conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow
their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
------------------------------
Although black
bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly
bears—often similar in color, but much larger—were believed to exist only in the western
provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly
escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical
evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language
and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals
that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute
different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears
in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.
------------------------------
Scientists studying
historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century,
Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that
time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and
extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with
Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have
been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large
meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant
historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of
the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption.
Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years
ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical
fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says
that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time
using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of
Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers
has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low
expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most
likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
------------------------------
The following appeared
in a letter to the editor of a newsletter on health issues.
"For the past
decade, most health experts have advised teenagers to avoid eating greasy foods
in order to prevent acne and related skin conditions, but the number of teenagers who sought
medical help for these skin problems has actually risen over the same period. In a recent study,
teenagers who avoided greasy foods for a month reported approximately as many outbreaks of
acne and related skin conditions as did those who ate an average of two servings of greasy
food per day. Such data indicate that eating greasy foods is unlikely to be a cause of acne and
related skin conditions. Therefore, health experts should no longer recommend that people
avoid such foods."
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